Aielaman'Shan
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.


Wheel of Time's The Old Tongue - It means: Dedicated Dragon Lord/s
 
HomeLatest imagesSearchRegisterLog in
Spy reports master list here
RIP Iris.
35 days, 9 hours.
Chat

 

 Fragment Drop Rates

Go down 
2 posters
AuthorMessage
Zhan
Jackie Zhan
Zhan


Posts : 158
Join date : 2012-01-11
Location : Illinois, USA

Fragment Drop Rates Empty
PostSubject: Fragment Drop Rates   Fragment Drop Rates EmptySun Jan 15, 2012 5:01 am

I've heard a lot of ranting about fragment drops, so let's introduce a bit of statistics.
My bubble drops:
#1 - 4
#2 - 2
#3 - 13
#4 - 7
#5 - 6
Now let us introduce a little something called the chi-squared goodness-of-fit test. This guy tells us whether our observed data (above) matches the expected (20% across the board). After a bit of calculation, we get a chi-squared value of 10.42 with 4 degrees of freedom and a p-value of 0.0340.

What matters is this last number - 0.0340. This tells us that, assuming a truly random drop rate, there is a 3.40% probability of getting drops as skewed as mine (or worse). [Note: a lower number means more suspicious distribution]. In statistics, we usually take a number under 5% or 10% to be "statistically significant." This number is, which means that, statistically speaking, the districution does *not* match what it's supposed to.

N.B.
I do realize that this is a small-ish sample size, with expected values of 6.8 for each fragment, which is borderline questionable. Hence the call for more data (and me collecting more myself).
I glossed over some technical details, but the conditions (except for the aforementioned sample size issues) are satisfied, and the null hypothesis should be obvious (20% across the board).
It *has* been a while since I worked much with statistics, so if I messed up somewhere, kindly let me know instead of ranting about idiots who pretend to know more than they do.

--Zhan
Vice, Aielaman'Shan (Galaxy 18)

Moved to public forum. --Zhan
Back to top Go down
nolyf3




Posts : 9
Join date : 2012-01-19
Age : 31
Location : Midwestern US

Fragment Drop Rates Empty
PostSubject: Re: Fragment Drop Rates   Fragment Drop Rates EmptyTue Feb 07, 2012 4:11 pm

Demon frags
#1 5
#2 3
#3 1
#4 1
#5 3

Thats a total of 5 visits (1 was a gem) and 50 AP used in chapter N
Back to top Go down
 
Fragment Drop Rates
Back to top 
Page 1 of 1

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
Aielaman'Shan :: Public-
Jump to: